Aaron Rodgers and the Jets rapidly are running out of runway and the Houston Texans are in town Thursday with a chance to turn out the lights on New York’s disastrous 2024 season.
Interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich and Rodgers described the onset of darkness as the Jets’ mood after their current losing streak hit five games last week in a no-show effort resulting in a loss to the New England Patriots.
Dire would be the word for New York with Rodgers limping toward his 41st birthday and a meaningless second half of the regular season. Even so, a win Thursday night sets up the Jets (2-6) for a shot at making a run at a wild-card spot.
No, seriously. A win to improve to 3-6, 10 days before Week 10 — at Arizona — before a date with old pal Joe Flacco (Nov. 17), flopping Seattle (Dec. 1, happy birthday to Rodgers), and an early kickoff at Miami (Dec. 8) adds up to a possible 7-6 record with four games to go, none of them impossible to win (Jaguars, Rams, Bills, Dolphins).
Of course, that would demand something out of the Jets they last displayed in their previous Thursday night game Sept. 19, a 24-3 win over the Patriots.
Fight.
There are three two-win teams in the AFC East but the loss to New England last week, and Denver (5-3) beating the Jets in a 10-9 shocker are two games that might haunt the Jets in a tiebreaker scenario later this season.
As for this week, the Texans (6-2) defeated Buffalo, the runaway favorite in the East and appear to be the biggest challenge left on the Jets’ schedule. A perfect 5-0 in conference games this season, they’ve also been in constant one-possession games and have a net total point differential of just nine. By comparison, the Bills are plus-84 and the Jets are minus-20.
We teamed with Inside Edge to find the keys to the Thursday night matchup and a few stats of interest to the betting-inclined.
The Jets are beating themselves. With 477 penalty yards, six interceptions and eight fumbles (one lost), negative or net-zero plays spell doom for an offense scrambling for an identity. That puts New York’s defense on the field far too long, especially in the second half when the Jets’ offense has gone dormant more often than not. Including Week 4 when they put up nine points in a one-point defeat at the hands of the Broncos on Sept. 29, the Jets have two second-half touchdowns in the past five games. The Jets allowed five second-half TDs in the past two games alone.
A tired defense allows chunk plays and can’t stop the run. The Jets fit the bill. And in comes Texans running back Joe Mixon, who is averaging 106.3 rushing yards per game over his last three games.
The Jets do catch a break with old nemesis Stefon Diggs out of the lineup. Diggs joined Houston’s leading receiver, Nico Collins, on injured reserve with a torn ACL in last week’s game.
A press-man strategy by the Jets’ secondary suits in this matchup given the high level of success quarterback C.J. Stroud is having this season targeting his first read, according to Inside Edge. He’s among league leaders in the category and working without his top two targets Thursday. De facto lead receiver Tank Dell has been targeted more than six times in just two of seven games this season, which could invite a bigger role for wide receiver Robert Woods and tight end Dalton Schultz.
Houston’s defense is limiting the damage done without using extra bodies.
The Texans have pressured opposing QBs on 36% of pass attempts with a base rush since Week 5 to rank second in the NFL in that statistic. The Jets are second-worst in passer rating against a base front in the same timeframe.
Hand it off to Breece Hall or Braelon Allen, you say?
The Texans lead the NFL with a miniscule 34 percent success rate on rushing attempts utilizing their base defensive front this season, and the Jets generated successful running plays on only 37 percent of attempts against a base front this season (31st in the NFL).
Rodgers becomes more mistake-prone after first down. He’s particularly pick-happy on third down. Entering Thursday’s game Rodgers is 32nd in the NFL among qualified passers with a 47.9 passer rating on third down since Week 5.
There is one connection working for New York: Rodgers to Garrett Wilson.
Wilson, second in the NFL with 51 receptions in 2024, is averaging 7.2 receptions per game over his last five games and has five-plus catches in seven of eight games, which ties him for the NFL lead in the category.
